Moody's tau txo qis nws qhov kev cia siab rau Asmeskas kev lag luam credit rating mus rau qhov tsis zoo, ua rau muaj kev txhawj xeeb tob hauv kev ua lag luam txog kev rov ua haujlwm ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb. Raws li lub zog tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom lag luam xav tau, qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev lag luam poob qis hauv Tebchaws Meskas thiab lub zog ntawm kev lag luam nyiaj txiag tau tsim muaj kev tawm tsam ob, ua rau lub sijhawm luv luv ntawm kev lag luam tooj liab thiab txhuas. Txawm hais tias qhov kev poob qis ntawm US dollar Performance index tau muab qee qhov kev txhawb nqa rau cov nqi, kev siv zog ntawm kev xav tau kev tsis sib haum xeeb thiab kev sib cuam tshuam ntawm txoj cai tsis paub meej tau ua rau muaj qhov tsis zoo ntawm cov nqi hlau.
Demand side: Resonance ntawm infrastructure contraction thiab export obstruction.
Kev txo qis ntawm Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov qhab nia ncaj qha cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam kev cia siab rau kev lag luam, thiab Trump cov thawj coj thawj zaug tau npaj $ 500 billion infrastructure daim nqi yuav raug yuam kom rov qab, ua rau txo qhov kev thov tooj liab rau kev tsim kho los ntawm 120000 txog 150000 tons hauv ib xyoos. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, qhov kev sib tw nqi nruab nrab ntawm Tuam Tshoj thiab Tebchaws Meskas tseem nce ntxiv, nrog cov lus xaiv hais tias Tebchaws Meskas npaj yuav yuam kom 25% tariff rau cov tooj liab thiab txhuas. Qhov no yuav nce tus nqi ntawm kev tsim khoom hauv tebchaws hauv Tebchaws Meskas thiab txwv tsis pub qhov kev thov rau cov khoom lag luam txawv teb xws li txhuas profiles thiab cov kav tooj liab. Yog tias EU cov kev ntsuas tawm tsam tau ua tiav, kev lag luam txhuas thoob ntiaj teb tuaj yeem ntsib kev txhim kho, thiab Tuam Tshoj tusaluminium exportsrau Tebchaws Europe tuaj yeem ntsib tus nqi se ntxiv ntawm 10%.
Cov khoom siv sab nraud: Qhov kev ua si ntawm kev txo qis thiab kev rov ua haujlwm ntxiv zuj zus.
Cov khoom lag luam cuam tshuam ntawm cov mines tooj liab tseem txuas ntxiv, nrog Chile's Codelco ntau lawm poob los ntawm 18% xyoo-rau-xyoo hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, thiab Peru's Las Bambas tooj liab mine txo qis kev tsim khoom los ntawm 30% vim kev tawm tsam hauv zej zog. Txawm li cas los xij, kev ua tiav ntawm kev saib xyuas hauv tsev smelter tau coj mus rau 0.37% lub hli ntawm lub hli nce hauv cov khoom siv tooj liab zoo rau lub Plaub Hlis. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm electrolytic aluminium, qhov rov pib dua ntawm hydropower hauv Yunnan tau thawb lub peev xwm ntau lawm rov qab mus rau 43.64 lab tons. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov kev tshem tawm ntawm Guinea's bauxite xa tawm daim ntawv tso cai tau ua rau muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog cov khoom siv raw, ua rau alumina tus nqi nce siab los ntawm 12% hauv ib hnub thiab kev txhawb nqa tus nqi nce mus txog 17800 yuan / tuj. Nws yog ib qho tsim nyog sau cia tias LME cov khoom muag tooj liab tau nce mus rau 187000 tons, thaum cov khoom lag luam txhuas tseem nyob rau theem siab ntawm 550000 tons. Lub implicit inventory pressure tseem tsis tau tso tawm tag nrho.
Tus Nqi thiab Txoj Cai: Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm Kev Hloov Hluav Taws Xob ntawm Tus Nqi Qis Logic
Kev hloov pauv hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb tau nrawm dua thiab ua rau tsis muaj zog rau qhov kev thov rau cov khoom siv hlau. Kev kho dua tshiab ntawm EU carbon tariff mechanism tau coj mus rau 8-10% nce ntawm cov nqi txhuas smelting, thiab kev loj hlob ntawm txhuas thov rau photovoltaics yuav txo los ntawm 25% mus rau 15%. Kev nce hauv shale roj ntau lawm hauv Tebchaws Meskas tau ua rau cov nqi hluav taws xob poob qis, thiab cov nqi nruab nrab ntawm electrolytic aluminium tau qis dua rau $ 2500 / ton. Txawm li cas los xij, kev nruj nruj ntawm ib puag ncig cov cai yuav txhawb nqa kev siv nyiaj txiag rau kev tsim kho tshiab txawv teb chaws. Hauv tsev, txoj cai rau kev lag luam hlau rov ua dua tshiab tau ntxiv dag zog, nrog lub hom phiaj ntawm kev nce qhov feem ntawm cov tooj liab rov qab mus rau 40% los ntawm 2025, uas tuaj yeem hloov kho cov qauv tooj liab thoob ntiaj teb nyob rau lub sijhawm ntev.
Outlook rau yav tom ntej: Cov txheej txheem tsim nyob rau hauv qhov nce volatility.
Lub sij hawm luv luv tus nqi tooj liab tuaj yeem kuaj kev txhawb nqa ntawm 77500 yuan / tuj, nrog Shanghai Aluminium daim ntawv cog lus tseem ceeb tsom rau 20000 yuan cim kev sib tw. Yog tias Asmeskas txoj cai txhawb kev tsim kho vaj tse poob qis ntawm qhov kev cia siab, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm tooj liab xav tau nyob rau lub quarter thib peb yuav raug kho dua mus rau 1.8%, thiab cov nqi txhuas yuav ntsib kev pheej hmoo ntawm tus nqi poob ntawm $ 2500-2600 ib tuj. Qhia kom them nyiaj rau ob lub cim tseem ceeb: 1) seb LME cov khoom muag tooj liab tau poob qis dua 150000 tons; 2) Yog qhov kev cia siab ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve txiav cov paj laum ua ntej lub sij hawm vim cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam tsis zoo. Kev lag luam kev lag luam yuav tsum tau ceev faj txog cov kev pheej hmoo los ntawm cov khoom lag luam siab. Cov neeg lag luam tuaj yeem them nyiaj rau kev hla ntau yam kev sib tw sib tw thiab txeeb lub qhov rais ntawm tooj liab aluminium kho tus nqi.
Xaus: Anchoring Industrial Logic in Uncertainty.
Kev txo qis ntawm kev ntsuam xyuas yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm microcosm ntawm qhov tsis ua tiav ntawm kev tswj hwm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, thiab kev lag luam tooj liab thiab txhuas tau dhau los ua tus nqi hloov pauv los ntawm "xav tau qhov kev xav tau" mus rau "tus nqi poob". Cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum tau tawg tawm ntawm lub sijhawm luv luv volatility ntxiab, tsom mus rau lub sijhawm ntev ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm lub zog thiab kev hloov pauv ntawm cov saw hlau, thiab ntes cov sijhawm ua lag luam coj los ntawm cov qauv kev tsis sib haum xeeb hauv kev hloov pauv.
Post lub sij hawm: May-23-2025