Tawm tsam keeb kwm yav dhau los ntawm kev sib zog ua kom tsis muaj zog hauv kev lag luam hlau thoob ntiaj teb, kev lag luam txhuas tau pom tias muaj kev tiv thaiv kev tiv thaiv kab mob vim muaj kev txwv nruj ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj cai qab nthab lub peev xwm thiab kev nthuav dav ntxiv ntawm kev thov lub zog tshiab. Xyoo 2025, kev ua lag luam toj roob hauv pes ntawm cov phiaj xwm hlau no tau hloov pauv ntau, nrog rau kev txwv kev tsim khoom, kev hloov pauv hluav taws xob, thiab cov cai tswj hwm thaj chaw sib cuam tshuam, tsim cov peev txheej tshiab nyob rau hauv nruj kev xav tau sib npaug.
Txoj cai rigidity tsim hauv qab, qhia txog lub qab nthab nyhuv ntawm Tuam Tshoj lub peev xwm ntau lawm.
Txij li thaum qhov kev siv ntawm 45 lab tons / xyoo tsim muaj peev xwm liab kab nyob rau hauv 2017, kev siv tus nqi ntawm electrolytic aluminium ntau lawm muaj peev xwm nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj tau mus txog tus nqi tseem ceeb ntawm 98%. Raws li lub Peb Hlis 2025, lub peev xwm tsim khoom hauv tsev tau mus txog 45.17 lab tons, thiab thaj chaw hydropower nplua nuj xws li Yunnan thiab Inner Mongolia tau dhau los ua qhov kev sib ntaus sib tua tseem ceeb rau kev hloov pauv. Nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb uas yuav tsum nco ntsoov tias cov kev txwv raws caij nyoog ntawm kev siv dej hauv thaj av Yunnan tau dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb - txo kev tsim khoom thaum lub caij qhuav tuaj yeem cuam tshuam txog 20% ntawm lub tebchaws muaj peev xwm ua haujlwm. Cov qauv "kev nyob ntawm huab cua" no tau coj mus rau ib lab tons ntawm kev xav tau sib txawv hauv kev lag luam hauv zos. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev nthuav dav ntawm cov peev txheej tsim tawm txawv teb chaws tau tawm tsam, nrog cov teb chaws Europe tau rov pib ua haujlwm qeeb vim cov nqi hluav taws xob siab, thiab cov teb chaws xws li Is Nrias teb thiab Russia tawm tsam los cuam tshuam cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb los ntawm Tuam Tshoj lub peev xwm cap.
Cov qauv kev hloov pauv ntawm qhov xav tau sab, nrog lub zog tshiab khiav dhau los ua lub cav tseem ceeb.
Cov kev xav tau nthuav tawm "dual-track drive" feature: nyob rau hauv ib txwm ua teb, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev txhawb nqa kev tsim kho vaj tse txhawb kev loj hlob ntawm aluminium thov rau kev tsim kho tshiab xws li ultra-high voltage thiab rail transit. Nws cia siab tias qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm cov khoom siv txhuas hauv cov khoom sib txuas yuav nce mus rau 15% los ntawm 2025; Nyob rau hauv cov teb tshiab, lightweighting ntawm hluav taws xob tsheb thiab expansion ntawm photovoltaic ntsia muaj peev xwm ua lub ntsiab increments. Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias kev siv txhuas ntawm lub zog tshiab rau ib lub tsheb tau nce 2-3 zaug piv rau cov tsheb siv roj ib txwm muaj, thiab txhua xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm txhuas siv rau cov duab hluav taws xob thiab cov hlua khi tau mus txog 26%. Qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws yog tias qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm aluminium hauv lub zog hloov pauv tau maj mam tshwm sim, thiab nws cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab lub teeb pom kev zoo yog eroding kev lag luam ntawm cov khoom siv tooj liab. JPMorgan kwv yees tias lub ntiaj teb aluminium xav tau kev loj hlob yuav ncav cuag 4% los ntawm 2025, ntau dua tooj liab 2.1%.
Kev siv zog ntawm cov nqi kev ua si thiab qhov tshwm sim ntawm cov txheej txheem ntawm cov txheej txheem thaum muaj ntau yam oscillations.
Kev lag luam tam sim no ntawm cov nqi txhuas nthuav tawm peb yam tseem ceeb: ua ntej, LME txhuas cov nqi hloov pauv hauv thaj tsam ntawm $ 2700-2900 / tuj, qhia txog kev sib ntaus sib tua ntawm kev xav tsis txaus thiab macro tsis paub meej; Thib ob, tus nqi hauv tsev ntawm Shanghai aluminium yog kev txhawb nqa los ntawm kev cia siab ntawm kev txwv ntau lawm hauv Yunnan, thiab 20000 cim tau dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev ua si luv luv; Thib peb, qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm alumina tus nqi tau nce zuj zus, thiab kev nce hauv bauxite muaj peev xwm hauv Guinea tau tsim muaj kev tiv thaiv kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig hauv tsev. Tus qauv Morgan Stanley qhia tau hais tias thaum muaj kev cuam tshuam loj ntawm cov khoom lag luam, cov nqi txhuas tuaj yeem tawg mus txog $ 3000 / tuj, thaum lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam poob qis tuaj yeem cuam tshuam txog kev puas siab puas ntsws ntawm $ 2000.
Risk matrix upgrade, plaub qhov sib txawv loj yuav tsum tau ua tib zoo taug qab
Plaub lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb uas yuav tsum tau ceev faj thaum nqis peev hauv kev lag luam txhuas.
Ib qho yog kev hloov kho ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj cai muaj peev xwm ntau lawm, uas yuav tsum tau them sai sai rau kev tawm tsam ntawm lub zog siv hluav taws xob ntau dhau los ntawm kev lag luam carbon emissions.
Qhov thib ob yog qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb, thiab European natural gas ntsoog thiab kev hloov pauv ntawm Yunnan hydropower los ntawm ntub mus rau lub sijhawm qhuav yuav ua rau muaj kev poob siab.
Thib peb, muaj kev hloov pauv hauv txoj cai ntawm kev lag luam, thiab muaj kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev rov ua dua US tariffs ntawm aluminium khoom los ntawm Tuam Tshoj.
Qhov thib plaub yog qhov cuam tshuam ntawm cov khoom vaj khoom tsev, thiab kev hloov kho ntawm Suav vaj tsev vaj tsev yuav ua rau muaj kev cog lus ntawm 8% -10% hauv kev thov rau kev tsim kho aluminium.
Lub tswv yim tswv yim: tuav qhov tseeb thiab zam qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm cov qauv
1. Rigid lub hom phiaj ntawm kev tsim muaj peev xwm: tsom rau cov tuam txhab ua lag luam hauv cov cheeb tsam uas raug nqi qis xws li Yunnan thiab Xinjiang, uas nws muaj peev xwm ruaj khov tsis txaus nyob rau hauv qhov txwv ntawm hydropower.
2. Kev teeb tsa ntawm lub zog tshiab: Qhov tseem ceeb yuav raug muab rau cov neeg muag khoom ntawm cov khoom muaj nqis ntxiv xws li photovoltaic thav duab thiab cov tais roj teeb.
3. Hedging lub sij hawm: Xauv hauv cov nyiaj tau los ntawm electrolyticaluminium ntau lawmthaum lub sij hawm alumina nqe kho qhov rais.
4. Geopolitical risk hedging: Ua tib zoo saib xyuas qhov kev nce qib ntawm Guinea bauxite tej yaam num thiab zam kev txaus ntshai los ntawm ib qho chaw muab khoom.
Sawv ntawm qhov taw tes ntawm 2025, kev ua lag luam txhuas tau hloov pauv los ntawm cov khoom lag luam ib txwm muaj rau cov khoom siv tawm tswv yim. Kev siv zog tas mus li ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj cai tsim muaj peev xwm thiab kev sib sib zog nqus ntawm kev hloov pauv hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb tau ua rau cov hlau no ob leeg tiv taus kev nce nqi thiab txaus siab rau kev loj hlob tus nqi. Cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum nrhiav qhov zoo tshaj plaws kev pheej hmoo rov qab piv txoj kev faib tawm hauv peb qhov kev sib koom ua ke ntawm txoj cai nruj, kev ruaj ntseg hluav taws xob, thiab kev hloov pauv.
Post lub sij hawm: May-20-2025