Ⅰ. Ntau lawm kawg: Qhov "expansion paradox" ntawm alumina thiab electrolytic aluminium
1. Alumina: Tus neeg raug kaw qhov teeb meem ntawm kev loj hlob thiab cov khoom lag luam siab
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm National Bureau of Statistics, Tuam Tshoj lub alumina ntau lawm tau mus txog 7.475 lab tons hauv lub Peb Hlis 2025 (+ 10.3% xyoo-rau-xyoo), nrog rau kev tsim tawm ntawm 22.596 lab tons hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg (+ 12.0% xyoo-rau-xyoo). Txawm hais tias muaj kev nthuav dav ntxiv ntawm kev tsim khoom, kev ua lag luam tau poob mus rau hauv lub voj voog tsis zoo ntawm "nce ntau lawm yam tsis tau nce nyiaj"
Oversupply intensifies:Cov khoom lag luam alumina hauv zej zog tau tshaj 3.958 lab tons, ua ke nrog kev ntxhov siab los ntawm kev qhib lub qhov rais ntshuam (Australian FOB tus nqi tau poob rau $ 373 / ton), thiab cov nqi chaw tau poob qis dua tus nqi nyiaj hauv cheeb tsam Shanxi (3250 yuan / ton).
Tus nqi siab los txo kev tsim khoom:Alumina cov nroj tsuag hauv Henan, Guizhou thiab lwm thaj chaw tau pib txij nkawm vim nyiaj txiag poob, ua rau 2.85% lub hlis ntawm lub hli txo qis hauv kev ua haujlwm rau 88.6 lab tons hauv ib xyoos hauv lub Peb Hlis. Txawm li cas los xij, kev tso tawm ntawm 1 lab tons ntawm cov peev txheej tshiab hauv Indonesia tau ua rau lub ntiaj teb overcapacity.
2. Electrolytic aluminium: qhov "tight balance" nyob rau hauv lub peev xwm ntau lawm qab nthab
Cov khoom siv hluav taws xob electrolytic nyob rau lub Peb Hlis yog 3.746 lab tons (+4.4% xyoo-rau-xyoo), thiab cov khoom tsim tawm hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg yog 11.066 lab tons (+3.2% xyoo-rau-xyoo). Txawm hais tias rov pib tsim khoom hauv cheeb tsam sab qab teb sab hnub poob (nrog Yunnan Hongtai tuav tag nrho cov peev txheej ntawm 1.5 lab tons), cov khoom elasticity yog txwv los ntawm cov cai.
Capacity hloov dominates:Sichuan, Guangxi thiab lwm thaj chaw rov pib tsim khoom feem ntau los ntawm kev hloov pauv, thaum Baotou Aluminium lub peev xwm qub tau raug tshem tawm los tawm tsam qhov nce, uas ua rau muaj kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom lag luam tsawg.
Inventory depletion accelerates:Thaum pib lub Plaub Hlis, cov khoom lag luam sib raug zoo ntawm electrolytic aluminium txo mus rau 744000 tons (xyoo-rau-xyoo -138000 tons), thiab LME cov khoom lag luam kuj poob rov qab mus rau 459000 tons, txhawb cov resilience ntawm aluminium nqi.
Ⅱ. Ntawm qhov kev thov sab: "cov qauv tsim kua muag" ntawm cov tsoos thiab cov kev tawm tshiab
1. Ib txwm teb: Ob chav tua ntawm architecture thiab export
Cov vaj tse vaj tse txuas ntxiv zuj zus:txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Peb Hlis, qhov chaw muag khoom ntawm cov vaj tsev lag luam yog nyob rau hauv "txias", qhov kev tsim kho profile tsuas yog 61%, thiab kev loj hlob ntawm aluminium ntau lawm (1.3%) tau qis dua qhov kev loj hlob ntawm electrolytic aluminium mov.
Export ntsib tariff nres:US aluminium tariffs rau Tuam Tshoj tau nce los ntawm 104% mus rau 145%, nrog txhuas xa tawm nyob rau lub Ib Hlis thiab Lub Ob Hlis poob 4.5% xyoo-rau-xyoo. Tuam txhab uas muag tab tom tig mus rau cov neeg Esxias kev thauj mus los ua ib qho chaw nyab xeeb.
2. Lub zog tshiab thiab high-end manufacturing: thov rau lub cav tshiab
Explosive loj hlob ntawmaluminium alloy:Nyob rau hauv lub Peb Hlis, kev tsim cov aluminium alloy tau mus txog 1.655 lab tons (xyoo-rau-xyoo + 16.2%), uas tau tsav los ntawm lub teeb yuag ntawm lub zog tshiab tsheb (ua kom ceev magnesium aluminium hloov) thiab qhov kev thov rau photovoltaic thav duab (tshwj xeeb los ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob tshiab hauv tsev).
Kev tawg hauv thaj chaw ntawm cov khoom siv high-end aluminium: Dongqing Cov Khoom Siv Tshwj Xeeb tau ua tiav kev sim ua kom muaj magnesium vuam hlau blanks, Longi Corporation's aluminium alloy bracket xaj tau nce 35% xyoo-rau-xyoo, thiab kev hloov pauv hauv high-end daim ntawv thov teb nrawm.
Ⅲ.Cov nqi thiab nqe: Kev sib tsoo ntawm Alumina vs. Kev nthuav dav ntawm Electrolytic Aluminium
1. Tus nqi nkhaus reconstruction
Aluminium oxide tau poob rau hauv 'kauv tuag':Cov nqi bauxite hauv tsev tau xoob (qis 5% lub hli nyob rau lub hli hauv cheeb tsam Jin Yu), cov khoom siv pabcuam xws li cov dej qab zib thiab cov thee tau txo qis, thiab cov nqi kev lag luam hnyav tau nqis mus rau 3158 yuan / ton, tab sis cov nqi tau poob sai dua (Shanxi chaw nqi tau poob qis dua 3000 yuan / ton).
Kev nthuav dav ntawm cov nyiaj tau los rau electrolytic aluminium:Tus nqi feem ntawm alumina tau poob mus rau 40% (55% hauv 2024), cov txiaj ntsig hnyav ntawm electrolytic aluminium kev lag luam tau mus txog 3700 yuan / ton, thiab cov nyiaj tau los tag nrho ntawm Yunnan hydropower kom zoo dua cov lag luam (xws li Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd.) tau tshaj 25%.
2. Ntau tus nqi sib txawv
Alumina oscillation hauv qab:Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm cov peev txheej txawv teb chaws qis qis (Indonesia ntxiv 6.5 lab tons ntawm cov peev txheej tsim tau los ua lag luam) thiab kev tso tawm cov peev txheej tshiab hauv tsev (Guangxi's 2 lab tuj project ncav cuag tag nrho cov khoom hauv lub Plaub Hlis) tau txwv qhov chaw rov qab, thiab qhov kev cia siab ua haujlwm rau lub quarter thib ob yog 2800-3200 yuan / ton.
High resilience ntawm electrolytic aluminium:LME txhuas tus nqi tseem nyob ruaj khov nyob rau hauv thaj tsam ntawm 2450-2550 US las / ton, thiab daim ntawv cog lus tseem ceeb rau Shanghai txhuas tau txais kev txhawb nqa los ntawm cov khoom muag qis thiab cov kev cia siab ntawm txoj cai (tsim "cov khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab" hauv tsev), nrog rau lub hom phiaj luv luv ntawm 20500 yuan / ton.
Ⅳ. Kev Lag Luam Thoob Ntiaj Teb thiab Txoj Cai: Tariff 'Grey Rhino' thiab Green Transformation
1. Kev cuam tshuam cov saw ntawm Tuam Tshoj US tariff game
Restructuring ntawm automotive kev lag luam saw:Tebchaws Asmeskas tau tshaj tawm 25% tariff rau cov tsheb thauj khoom, yuam Tesla lub Hoobkas Mexico ncua kev tsim khoom. Qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm Suav txhuas xa tawm mus rau Tebchaws Meskas tau poob mus rau 5% (cov tuam txhab xws li Wan'an Technology tau nrawm lawv hloov mus rau European lag luam).
Rusal Transfer Strategy:Raws li EU lub sijhawm zam kev zam rau Rusal tab tom los txog, Rusal tau nrawm nws cov khoom xa mus rau Asian warehouses (exporting 154000 tons ntawm alumina mus rau Russia nyob rau lub Peb Hlis), thiab LME cov khoom muag ntawm Rusal tau nce mus rau 82%.
2. Carbon neutrality tsav kev kho dua tshiab
Qhov kev sim ua haujlwm rau cov ntawv pov thawj carbon footprint tau pib:Baise electrolytic aluminium carbon labeling daim ntawv pov thawj tau ua tiav, thiab lub hom phiaj rau cov khoom siv txhuas rov ua dua tshiab tau nce mus rau 6 lab tons hauv ib xyoos (nrog Alcoa tus nqi qis-carbon aluminium nce mus txog 15%).
Hluav taws xob nqi game:Cov nqi roj av nyob sab Europe tau rov qab mus rau 35 euros / megawatt teev, thiab kev rov pib ua haujlwm ntawm Trimet Aluminium lub Hoobkas German tau ncua sijhawm. Kev ruaj ntseg ntawm domestic hydropower nyob rau hauv Yunnan tau dhau los ua cov khoom muaj kev pheej hmoo.
Ⅴ. Outlook rau yav tom ntej: Qhov kev ua si dual ntawm cov nyiaj seem thiab kev hloov pauv
1. Alumina: Poob tsav liquidation, tsom rau marginal ntau lawm txo
Yog tias tus nqi txuas ntxiv qis dua 3000 yuan / ton, qhov kev txo qis hauv lub quarter thib ob tuaj yeem ncav cuag 2 lab tons / xyoo, tab sis Indonesia lub peev xwm tsim tawm tshiab tuaj yeem cuam tshuam cov khoom cog lus.
Tswv yim tswv yim: Xauv nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm ntev raw khoom tus nqi ntawm cov nqi siab thiab xyuam xim rau Tuam Tshoj Aluminium Corporation (601600. SH), uas muaj nws cov mines.
2. Electrolytic aluminium: cov txheej txheem hauv qab cov khoom muag qis thiab cov nyiaj faib tawm
Kev nce txhua xyoo ntawm kev thov rau lub zog tshiab (photovoltaic + lub zog tshiab) yog 800000 txog 1 lab tons, offsetting qhov poob ntawm cov teb ib txwm muaj. Aluminium nqi chaw cia siab tias yuav tswj 19500 txog 21500 yuan / tuj.
Post lub sij hawm: Apr-22-2025