Lub London Hlau Txauv (LME) cov khoom lag luam txhuas txuas ntxiv mus rau hauv qab, poob mus rau 322000 tons raws li lub Rau Hli 17, tsoo qhov qis tshiab txij li xyoo 2022 thiab qhov poob qis ntawm 75% ntawm qhov siab tshaj ob xyoos dhau los. Tom qab cov ntaub ntawv no yog qhov kev sib sib zog nqus ntawm cov khoom siv thiab cov qauv xav tau hauv kev ua lag luam txhuas: qhov chaw them nqi rau peb lub hlis txhuas tau hloov pauv los ntawm $ 42 / tuj luv nqi nyob rau lub Plaub Hlis mus rau tus nqi them, thiab cov nqi them rau yav hmo ntuj tau nce mus txog $ 12.3 / ton, xav txog qhov siab ntawm txoj haujlwm ntev los nyem txoj haujlwm.
Cov khoom lag luam ntsoog: cov khoom lag luam poob qis cuam tshuam nrog kev ua si geopolitical
Txij li thaum Lub Rau Hli, tsuas yog 150 tons ntawm cov ntawv txais khoom lag luam tau sau npe rau LME cov khoom lag luam txhuas, thiab ob feem peb ntawm cov khoom muag uas twb muaj lawm yog cov khoom lag luam Lavxias uas tau txwv los ntawm Asmeskas thiab UK. Tuam Tshoj tau nrawm dua qhov nqus ntawm 741000 tons ntawm Lavxias teb sab aluminium los ntawm Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Plaub Hlis, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 48%. Txawm li cas los xij, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hauv tsev hluav taws xob muaj peev xwm tau nce mus txog txoj cai qab nthab ntawm 45 lab tons, thiab cov khoom muag ntawm lub sijhawm dhau los tau synchronously poob rau 16 lub hlis qis. Nyob rau hauv lub siab ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov, lub liquidity ntawm aluminium lag luam yog qhia ib tug "ob npaug tua" sib.
Trade Restructuring: Hidden variables nyob rau hauv lub Flow ntawm Aluminium
Cov qauv kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb ntawm cov khoom seem aluminium tab tom hloov pauv ntau: Tebchaws Asmeskas tau siv cov kev zam rau cov nqi se kom nyiam cov khoom seem ntawm cov khoom seem, uas cuam tshuam rau kev teeb tsa ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam txhuas siv dua tshiab. Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv txhuas rov ua dua tshiab yuav ncav cuag 10.5 lab tons hauv 2024, suav txog 20% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom siv txhuas. Txawm li cas los xij, kev txwv tsis pub nkag mus rau hauv cov tebchaws Esxias yav Qab Teb sab hnub tuaj tau yuam cov tuam txhab Suav los teeb tsa cov chaw tsim khoom hauv Malaysia thiab Thaib teb kom ua cov khoom pov tseg tsis zoo. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, European Union tau txhawb nqa tus kheej kev txaus siab hauv cov khoom siv txhuas rov ua dua tshiab, thiab Nyiv cov feem ntawm cov khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab tau mus txog 100%. Kev sib tw thoob ntiaj teb rau qis-carbon aluminium yog qhov hnyav zuj zus.
Kev hloov pauv kev lag luam: sib npaug ntawm qhov kev thov siab kawg thiab txoj cai txwv
Cov qauv kev hloov pauv ntawm Tuam Tshoj Aluminium Kev Lag Luam tau nrawm dua: Hauv xyoo 2024, qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm cov khoom muaj nqis ntxiv xws li aviationaluminium daim hlauthiab fais fab roj teeb foils nyob rau hauv cov khoom txhuas ntawm 42 lab tons yuav nce mus rau 35%. Qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm txhuas siv nyob rau hauv lub zog tshiab tsheb tau dhia los ntawm 3% hauv 2020 mus rau 12%, dhau los ua lub cav tseem ceeb ntawm kev xav tau kev loj hlob. Txawm li cas los xij, sab nraud dependence ntawm bauxite tshaj 70%, lub peev xwm qab nthab ntawm electrolytic aluminium yog txwv, thiab ua ke nrog lub siab ntawm EU Carbon ciam teb Tax (CBAM), kev nthuav dav ntawm kev lag luam ntsib ntau yam kev txwv.
Kev pom yav tom ntej: Cov qauv kev sib tw hauv lub sijhawm ntawm cov khoom muag qis
Kev tshuaj xyuas qhia tias tam sim no LME aluminium nyem tus cwj pwm tau dhau qhov kev kwv yees luv luv thiab hloov mus rau hauv kev ntsuas kev ntxhov siab rau kev ua haujlwm ntawm lub ntiaj teb txhuas cov saw hlau. Yog tias lub xeev cov khoom lag luam qis tseem nyob, kev ua lag luam yuav hloov ntawm "cyclical surplus" mus rau "cov qauv tsis txaus". Cov tuam txhab lag luam yuav tsum tau ceeb toom rau cov kev cuam tshuam ntawm thaj chaw muaj kev pheej hmoo, kev hloov pauv txoj cai ntawm kev lag luam, thiab kev txwv tsis pub muaj peev xwm, thiab kev ua txhaum ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob siv hluav taws xob thiab cov khoom siv hauv cheeb tsam high-end yuav dhau los ua tus yuam sij rau kev tawg.
Post lub sij hawm: Jun-26-2025