Raws li cov ntaub ntawv txhuas cov khoom lag luam tso tawm los ntawm London Hlau Txauv (LME) thiab Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), thaum Lub Peb Hlis 21, LME cov khoom lag luam txhuas tau poob rau 483925 tons, ntaus tus tshiab qis txij li lub Tsib Hlis 2024; Ntawm qhov tod tes, Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) txhuas cov khoom lag luam poob los ntawm 6.95% nyob rau ib lub lim tiam rau 233240 tons, qhia qhov txawv ntawm "nruj rau sab nraud thiab xoob sab hauv". Cov ntaub ntawv no yog qhov sib txawv ntawm qhov ua tau zoo ntawm LME txhuas tus nqi ruaj khov ntawm $ 2300 / tuj thiab Shanghai txhuas cov ntawv cog lus tseem ceeb nce los ntawm 20800 yuan / tuj nyob rau tib hnub, qhia txog kev ua si nyuaj ntawm lub ntiaj teb.kev lag luam aluminiumsaw nyob rau hauv kev muab khoom thiab kev thov rov tsim kho thiab kev sib tw ntawm thaj chaw.
Kaum lub hlis qis ntawm LME cov khoom lag luam txhuas yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm qhov kev cuam tshuam ntawm Russia-Ukraine tsis sib haum xeeb thiab Indonesia txoj cai xa tawm. Tom qab poob nws txoj kev lag luam nyob sab Europe vim raug nplua, Rusal hloov nws cov khoom xa tawm mus rau Asia. Txawm li cas los xij, kev txwv bauxite xa tawm los ntawm Indonesia hauv 2025 tau ua rau kom nruj ntawm cov khoom siv alumina thoob ntiaj teb, ua rau tsis ncaj ncees rau LME cov khoom muag cov nqi. Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias nyob rau lub Ib Hlis thiab Lub Ob Hlis 2025, Indonesia cov khoom xa tawm bauxite poob 32% xyoo-rau-xyoo, thaum Australian alumina tus nqi nce 18% xyoo-rau-xyoo rau $ 3200 / ton, ntxiv cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov smelters txawv teb chaws. Ntawm qhov kev xav tau, cov tuam txhab tsheb European tau nrawm hloov cov kab ntau lawm rau Tuam Tshoj kom tsis txhob muaj kev pheej hmoo ntawm tariff, tsav tsheb nce 210% xyoo-rau-xyoo nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj tus imports ntawm electrolytic aluminium (nrog imports mus txog 610000 tons nyob rau hauv Lub ib hlis ntuj thiab Lub ob hlis ntuj). Qhov no 'Internalization ntawm kev thov sab nraud' ua rau LME cov khoom muag yog qhov taw qhia rhiab qhia txog kev xa khoom thoob ntiaj teb thiab kev xav tau tsis sib haum.
Lub rebound ntawm domestic Shanghai txhuas cov khoom muag yog ze ze rau lub peev xwm tsim tawm lub voj voog thiab txoj cai kev cia siab hloov. Kev txo qis ntau lawm (kwv yees li 500000 tons) tshwm sim los ntawm qhov tsis txaus ntawm hydropower hauv Yunnan, Sichuan thiab lwm qhov chaw tseem tsis tau paub meej, thaum lub peev xwm tshiab tau ntxiv (600000 tons) hauv cov nqi qis xws li Inner Mongolia thiab Xinjiang tau nkag mus rau lub sijhawm tsim khoom. Lub zog hluav taws xob hluav taws xob hauv tsev ua haujlwm tau nce mus txog 42 lab tons, nce mus txog keeb kwm siab. Txawm hais tias cov khoom siv txhuas hauv tsev tau nce 2.3% xyoo-rau-xyoo nyob rau lub Ib Hlis thiab Lub Ob Hlis, cov khoom vaj tse tsis muaj zog (nrog rau 10% xyoo-rau-xyoo txo hauv thaj tsam ua tiav ntawm cov vaj tsev ua lag luam) thiab cov khoom siv hauv tsev poob qis (-8% xyoo-rau-xyoo nyob rau lub Ib Hlis thiab Lub Ob Hlis) tau ua rau cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb. Nws yog ib qho tsim nyog sau cia tias qhov kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam hauv tsev hauv lub Peb Hlis tau dhau qhov kev cia siab (+ 12.5% xyoo-rau-xyoo nyob rau lub Ib Hlis thiab Lub Ob Hlis), thiab cov khoom lag luam ntxov ntawm qee qhov kev tsim kho vaj tse tau txhawb nqa 15% lub hli nyob rau lub hli nce hauv kev txiav txim siab aluminium profile, uas piav qhia txog qhov resilience ntawm luv luv rebound nyob rau hauv Shanghai txhuas cov khoom muag.
Los ntawm tus nqi saib, cov nqi ua tiav rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hluav taws xob hauv tsev tseem nyob ruaj khov ntawm 16500 yuan / tuj, nrog cov nqi ua ntej ci anode tuav qhov siab ntawm 4300 yuan / tuj thiab alumina nqi me ntsis poob rau 2600 yuan / ton. Hais txog cov nqi hluav taws xob, Inner Mongolia cov tuam txhab tsim hluav taws xob tsim hluav taws xob tau txo cov nqi hluav taws xob los ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob ntsuab, txuag tshaj 200 yuan ib tuj ntawm txhuas hluav taws xob. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov tsis txaus ntawm hydropower hauv Yunnan tau ua rau 10% nce ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob rau cov lag luam txhuas hauv zos, ua rau muaj peev xwm sib txawv hauv cheeb tsam vim qhov sib txawv ntawm cov nqi.
Hais txog cov yam ntxwv ntawm nyiaj txiag, tom qab Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve lub Peb Hlis Ntuj lub rooj sib tham tus paj laum tau tshaj tawm lub teeb liab dovish, US dollar Performance index poob rau 104.5, muab kev txhawb nqa rau LME txhuas tus nqi, tab sis kev ntxiv dag zog ntawm Suav yuan pauv tus nqi (CFETS Performance index nce mus rau 105.3) suppressed lub peev xwm rau Shanghai txhuas ua raws li kev nplua.
Kev hais lus, 20800 yuan / tuj yog ib qho tseem ceeb tiv thaiv qib rau Shanghai Aluminium. Yog tias nws tuaj yeem tawg tau zoo, nws tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam rau 21000 yuan / tuj; Ntawm qhov tsis sib xws, yog tias kev muag khoom vaj tse tsis rov qab los, qhov kev poob qis yuav nce ntxiv.
Post lub sij hawm: Mar-25-2025